Number of children in care increasing at greater rate in Wales than England

A deep and enduring dispute characterises public policy towards children and families who come to the attention of the welfare services. On the one hand there are the ‘rescuers’, those who believe that children from flawed families are best removed from them, early and decisively, in order to be offered a fresh and better start in life elsewhere. On the other hand, are the ‘repairers’, those who believe that families are best placed to care for their own and that state support ought to be directed towards keeping families together, rather than splitting them apart.

The ‘rescuers’ have been firmly in charge for a decade and a half. Year on year, since 1997, the rate at which children have been removed from their own families, and into local authority care, has been rising. In Wales, the rate was above that of England at the start of the period, and the gap has widened further over the whole period. A child in Wales is now almost one and a half times as likely to be taken into local authority care than a child in England.

Looked After Children  This is the first in a two part series investigating the ever-increasing number of children taken away from their families and into the care of local authorities in Wales. Tomorrow’s article examines ways the question might be addressed. On Wednesday Mark Drakeford will raise the issue in a Short Debate in the National Assembly.

The rate of increase slowed in the middle of the first decade of the present century. However, the Baby P scandal of 2008 produced a dramatic acceleration which has continued ever since. The rate of increase in Wales has been nearly six times that which has occurred across our border, over the same time frame. Of course, there will always be circumstances in which deliberate cruelty or wilful neglect will mean that children will need to be removed to avoid harm and suffering and nothing in this article suggests otherwise.  However, the escalating rate of removal suggests that something different is driving change in the system. Table 1 below sets out the growth in children in local authority (LA) care, over the past decade.

Table 1: Percentage growth in children looked after by local authorities in Wales, per 10,000

Year	All Ages	< 1	1 – 4	5 – 9	10 – 15	16 – 17	(England)
2003	64	50	60	60	70	64	55
2004	66	50	61	62	75	65	55
2005	68	65	59	61	80	64	55
2006	71	60	61	62	83	72	55
2007	73	56	62	61	87	82	55
2008	73	58	58	61	89	84	54
2009	75	63	61	59	91	90	55
2010	83	81	73	66	97	94	58
2011	86	78	80	69	97	102	59

There are three essential ways in which this growth in numbers can be explained. It could be due to an additional inflow into the system, it could be explained by a slow-down in the rate at which looked after children are moved on from local authority care, or it could be combination of both. Table Two, below, sets out the numbers of children coming into the system for each year, over the same period.

Table 2: Numbers of children starting to be looked after by local authorities in Wales

Year	Total children	(10–15	16–17	18+)	Incoming	Outgoing
2003	4,200	1,655	500	30	1,650	–
2004	4,315	1,750	515	20	1,715	1,600
2005	4,400	1,845	515	25	1,710	1,625
2006	4,535	1,905	575	10	1,675	1,540
2007	4,640	1,960	655	15	1,540	1,435
2008	4,630	1,965	680	10	1,445	1,455
2009	4,705	1,975	710	15	1,640	1,565
2010	5,160	2,070	720	5	2,025	1,570
2011	5,415	2,080	785	5	1,880	1,625
2012	5,725	2,115	850	10	1,970	1,660

Taken together, the tables demonstrate a number of key points. First, they suggest that the explanation for a rising proportion of looked after children in the earlier part of the period (up to 2008) lies in a reduction in the rate of flow out of the system. Both numbers of incoming and outgoing children are falling, but there are fewer outgoing, so those who are looked after, are so for longer periods. This is further implied by the rise in older looked after children. There is a 64 per cent rise in the number of children between 16-17 looked after by LAs across the whole period.

Then, in the latter part of the period, the ‘Baby Peter effect’ had a dramatic impact on children being drawn into the system. A study by Cafcass, in England, published earlier this year, refers to the “unprecedented rise” in local authority care applications, “since the publication of the Baby Peter Serious Care Review in November 2008”. Not only are receptions into care being made in greater numbers, but “local authorities are making applications at an earlier stage of their involvement with children”.

Cafcass conclude that the Baby Peter effect has produced “a fundamental shift in social work practice”, and one which is set to continue into the future. The figures above demonstrate a similar increase in Wales. The pattern of the earlier period – lower intake, but longer stays – is changed by a huge increase in the intake. There was a 40 per cent increase in the intake between 2008 (figures were published in March, before the review) and 2010, the first full year after the review. As one would expect in this latter period, with more children in the system there are more children going out. But although there have been year-on-year increases in outflow, they do not match the increase intake.

Are these increases uniform across Wales, and are there other drivers apart from the  ‘Baby Peter effect’? In England, Paul Bywaters has investigated the variation in the rate of looked after children between LAs, and the correlation this rate and the Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD) score for each LA. His figures show that there is a 7:1 ratio between the LAs with the highest and lowest rates of looked after children (Manchester 142 children per 10,000. and Wokingham 20). He concluded that there is a strong relationship between deprivation and children’s services’ outcomes (that is, looked after children), and that deprivation is the central factor in explaining variations between looked after children rates across LAs. As he put it:

“…inequalities in children’s services’ outcomes are not a post code lottery. Nor are they just unfortunate. They represent the impact of systemic social inequality on children’s life chances.”

In Wales a similar pattern can be observed. The comparable figures for the variations in rates of Looked After Children are laid out in Table 3.

Table 3: Looked after children rates by local authority, 2011

Local Authority	Looked After Children	Population 0-17	Rate per 10,000 children
Monmouthshire	80	18,841	42
Flintshire	160	32,635	49
Wrexham	160	29,055	55
Isle of Anglesey	80	13,515	59
Pembrokeshire	155	25,104	62
Ceredigion	80	12,770	63
Powys	170	26,203	65
Carmarthenshire	260	37,614	69
Cardiff	520	70,850	73
Vale of Glamorgan	200	27,236	73
Gwynedd	175	23,678	74
Conwy	165	21,944	75
Caerphilly	300	39,533	76
Newport	285	33,235	86
Denbighshire	175	19,524	90
Blaenau Gwent	130	14,336	91
Rhondda Cynon Taf	550	50,095	110
Bridgend	325	28,901	112
Swansea	580	46,782	124
Merthyr Tydfil	165	12,554	131
Neath Port Talbot	410	28,209	145
Torfaen	290	19,819	146
Wales	5,415	632,433	86

Overall inequality of Looked After Children rates by LAs in Wales is less than in England (at a ratio of just a little over 3:1 comparing Monmouthshire to Torfaen). But this due to the fact that nowhere in Wales sees rates at such low levels as some places in England. The lowest rates (Monmouthshire) are twice the lowest rates observed in England (42:20), and there are two Welsh LAs (Neath Port Talbot and Torfaen) with rates significantly higher than the rest, and higher than any rates recorded in an English LA. This is further bourne out when it is considered that the number of Looked After Children per 10,000 across the whole of England is 59 (Bywaters’ figure), whereas in Wales it is almost half as much again at 86.

But does Bywaters’ finding hold within Welsh Local Authorities? The data is not available to repeat Bywaters’ study precisely, but an analogous method, derived from the Welsh Index of Multiple Deprivation demonstrates that there is a clear correlation observable in Wales too. This is shown in Table 4 where a clear correlation emerges between the relative deprivation status of  local authorities and their ranking in the rate of looked after children.

Table 4: Looked after children rank and WIMD rank by local authority

Local Authority	Children Looked After per 10,000	LA Looked After rank	LA WIMD Rank
Monmouthshire	42	1	2
Flintshire	49	2	6
Wrexham	55	3	11
Isle of Anglesey	59	4	7
Pembrokeshire	62	5	5
Ceredigion	63	6	1
Powys	65	7	3
Carmarthenshire	69	8	9
Cardiff	73	9	17
Vale of Glamorgan	73	10	10
Gwynedd	74	11	4
Conwy	75	12	8
Caerphilly	76	13	16
Newport	86	14	19
Denbighshire	90	15	12
Blaenau Gwent	91	16	21
Rhondda Cynon Taf	110	17	20
Bridgend	112	18	15
Swansea	124	19	14
Merthyr Tydfil	131	20	22
Neath Port Talbot	145	21	18
Torfaen	146	22	13

The evidence thus firmly demonstrates that Welsh children are being removed from their families at an accelerating rate, and at a rate which has diverged sharply from that in England. Moreover, such children are not drawn at random from the Welsh population. The risk of being taken into local authority care is strongly correlated with poverty and deprivation. Moreover, the pattern is self-reinforcing, as council budgets are used up, almost entirely, in responding to the needs of those already caught up it the system, with very little left over to invest in helping families to stay together. It is to that possibility that tomorrow’s article will turn.