Euro exit could take Scotland out of UK

The Guardian’s latest ICM poll this week (see panel) is further evidence that UKIP is a growing force. But is this growth sustainable and could it change the existing pattern of UK party politics? Well let’s remember that the SDP posed a similar question in the 1980s but then faded away.

Nigel Farage argues that the SDP changed politics by creating the conditions for New Labour, implying that UKIP might achieve something similar in relation to the Conservative Party. I think he is right about the SDP’s impact on Labour at least. But history never repeats itself exactly. I remember the battles we fought inside the Labour Party with the hard left, when our victory wasn’t guaranteed. If we had lost what would have happened to Labour and would the SDP have grown to replace it? Is UKIP the existential threat to the Conservative party that the SDP was to Labour?

State of the Parties   Labour ………………………………………………. 34% (-4%) Conservative ………………………………………. 28% (-4%) UKIP ………………………………………………… 18% (+9%) Lib Dem …………………………………………….. 11% (-4%) Others ………………………………………………..  9% (-)   Voting intentions for in/out referendum   Definitely stay in the EU ………………………… 22% (-) Probably stay in the EU………………………….. 18% (-) Definitely leave the EU …………………………… 32% (-4%) Probably leave the EU ……………………………. 11% (-4%)   Tomorrow: When it can help for the UK to lose at Brussels  Martin Jones argues that it is in the Welsh interest to have more not less European integration.

Source: Guardian/ICM, published 14 May 2013.

Maybe UKIP isn’t only a right wing phenomenon or even a UK one. In many western countries there are political movements, which have, similar messages and they are probably reflections of the same causes. Italy’s Grillo Party, the Danish Peoples Party, the Golden Dawn in Greece, the True Finns and even the Tea Party in the US, are reactions to the same pressures. Globalisation brings benefits but it also has adverse effects on many people. Exporting employment to lower wage countries or importing workers prepared to work for lower wages is not a universally good thing. Few mainstream politicians acknowledge this as they fear where that argument leads. This leaves a political vacuum which Mr Farage and others will fill.

Short of some dreadful scandal affecting their leader I can’t see anything stopping UKIP before 2015. That is, UKIP will do very well in next year’s Euro elections and they may well top the poll. They are also likely to be the main challenger in any by-elections and could gather several MPs in the next year or two (even if Nadine Dorries doesn’t join). In a general election our first past the post system makes it very difficult for a third party or a fourth party to break through. They will be very vulnerable to the ‘wasted vote’ argument. It is unlikely that they will win seats but they may influence who does.

Is UKIP good news or bad news for Labour? My enemy’s enemy is my friend; but not if he’s my enemy as well. Labour’s results in the English local elections a few weeks’ ago were OK but no more than that. A 29 per cent level of support in mid term isn’t usually regarded as a sound base to win an election from. These results suggest that Labour will find winning seats in southern England outside of the capital very difficult. They can still win but only if the other parties are split against them.

The Liberal Democrats’ loss of about a third of their council seats (124) was a similar proportion the Conservatives. They also did appallingly in the South Shields Parliamentary by-election and have lost the ability to garner protest votes. They are at best the fourth party. They may gain some comfort in that they stemmed the tide to some extent in the areas where they hold Parliamentary seats. They will want to believe that they can retain most of their MPs in the 2015 UK general election. If so, the balance of power may again rest with them. 

It isn’t as bad as it seems for the Tories. Don’t panic, would be my advice. If they don’t split; if they don’t increase UKIP’s credibility by emulating their policies and forming alliances; if they govern well; and if the economy begins to pick up… they can still win in 2015. Nearly a quarter of the electorate supported UKIP in the local elections but that isn’t all bad. What will these people do in a general election? If they keep voting UKIP then the Tories will lose the election but it isn’t inevitable that will happen. Even less likely is the prospect of UKIP voters falling into Miliband’s arms.  Cameron could rally his supporters and return in triumph.

In Wales UKIP’s results in the local election in Anglesey were underwhelming. They polled 7 per cent, ahead of the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats (both on 5 per cent) but well behind Plaid Cymru (32 per cent), the Independents (31 per cent) and Labour (17 per cent). UKIP’s message isn’t well suited for a local election in such circumstances. However, in a Euro election many Independent voters may well look to UKIP.

UKIP is unlikely to top the Euro election ballot in Wales, but they did well in 2009 and they will probably do better next year. Last time they won the fourth seat from Labour and pushed the Lib Dems into fifth place. Next year I think third or second will be a realistic target and perhaps they will improve even on that. UKIP is not only an English phenomenon. But even if there were no UKIP supporters on this side of Offa’s Dyke it’s growth would still affect us.

For decades there has been a political consensus in favour of continued membership of the EU. Yes, that consensus didn’t include the Tory right but they were largely a marginal force of mavericks. Today that consensus is shattered with potentially profound consequences for the Tory Party, for the UK and its devolved governments, and our relationship with the EU.

We all have a stake in this, as there are a variety of possible outcomes. The Welsh Government desires continuity, both within the UK and the EU. However, stability is now threatened in both – by next year’s Scottish referendum and the EU referendum promised by Cameron. A Tory Party which reached an accommodation with UKIP and succeeded in winning the UK general election would take us out of the EU. In the process they would also create the conditions most likely to take Scotland out of the UK.