Simple A-grade comparisons do not tell the full story

The Welsh enthusiasm for self-flagellation knows no bounds, and it is always re-fuelled by statistical comparisons between Wales and England. No-one can be complacent about the consistent four-year decline in the number of Welsh pupils achieving the highest grades at A-level, but we do need to examine these statistics  rather more closely if we are not to become suicidal.

Across England, Wales and Northern Ireland, only three regions managed to improve their A/A* scores in 2013: the north east of England (0.4%), Yorkshire and Humberside (0.5%) and the East Midlands (0.2%). Amongst the rest, Wales, at (-0.7%) showed the third highest decline, behind Northern Ireland (-1.2%) and the West Midlands (-0.8%). The South East of England, at (-0.6%) was only just behind Wales. England as a whole showed a decline of -0.3%. This table puts Wales in the middle of the pack – for top grades – rather than at the bottom.

The table shows that, in terms of percentage changes, there is no pattern this year, with two of the three regions registering an improvement being northern regions.

Improvement at A/A*	%
Yorks & Humber	0.5
North East	0.4
E Midlands	0.2
Deterioration at A/A*
N Ireland	-1.2
W Midlands	-0.8
Wales	-0.7
South East	-0.6
Eastern	-0.3
London	-0.2
North West	-0.1
South West	-0.1

Where there is a pattern is in the absolute percentage of total A-level entrants achieving the highest grade – A*. This shows a very clear north-south divide, with only three regions – all in the south east – achieving a higher share of A* grades than their share of total entrants. I have not been able to identify the equivalent Welsh figures.

English Regions	% Entrants	% of all A*
North East	4	3
North West	13	11
Yorks&Humb	9	8
W Midlands	10	9
E Midlands	8	7
South West	10	10
Eastern	12	13
South East	19	22
London	16	18

These changes – all, except Northern Ireland, being less than one per cent – may be simply random variations, although the consistent drop in the Welsh figure over four years suggests something more significant.

The drop in the attainment of the very highest grades across most of England, Wales and Northern Ireland could also be accounted for by the changing mix of subjects taken, with a sharp drop of 11-16 per cent in those taking A-levels in communication studies, physical education, general studies, and increases in subjects such as economics, chemistry, further mathematics and physics.

There has been much comment in recent years on the way in which boys and girls tend to go for different subject areas – boys constituting the majority of entrants in physics and computing, mathematics and economics, and girls in the majority in languages, including English and Welsh, art and design and communication studies. The number of entrants for A-level Welsh has declined by 12.5 per cent, a very substantial drop, and less than 20 per cent of entrants were boys – an even more pronounced gender imbalance than for English.

All this suggests that we need some more consistent analysis of educational results not only by nation, but by nation and regions.  We need it not to make excuses but to get a clear perspective that a simple comparison of Wales with England as a whole does not provide. The Welsh Education Minister, Huw Lewis, was right to say we need to ‘drill down’.