Mark Drakeford says voters have an important choice to make as the General Election approaches.
There is a temptation for any General Election to be regarded, by those of us caught up in them, as the most important we have ever seen. More often than not, that turns out not to be true. Some elections, however, do mark a turning point in the nature of politics and of the state.
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General Election Series Ahead of the general election each of the six main parties were invited to contribute to Click on Wales about why they should have your vote on the 7th May. This series will run an article from one party each day up until the general election. Read all of the articles here. |
Three occasions stand out in the modern era.
The 1945 General Election set a policy direction which has proved remarkably durable. The NHS remains – in Wales at least – recognisably based on Bevanite principles. Its belief that collective solutions produce the most effective response to common problems continues to resonate whenever such problems arise.
The 1979 election produced a far closer result, proving that fundamental change does not require a landslide to produce it. Mrs Thatcher may not have succeeded in rolling back the frontiers of the state in a wholesale way – the share of national income taken by government was higher at the end of her premiership than at the start of it – but she did change the nature of the UK economy, more or less ending heavy industry; decimating manufacturing industry; expanding financial services and putting us on the path to the great crash of 2008. The post-Thatcher world is not the same as the one she inherited.
The 1997 election ended the hegemony of the Conservative party in UK politics – it had dominated the 20th century. It is now nearly 20 years since the Conservative party has won an election outright, the longest time it has failed to do so in the era since universal suffrage began.
Now, the need to ensure that this failure continues in 2015 is absolutely imperative.
The Tory-led government since 2010 has been a dismal failure, socially and economically. But its promises for the next five years prove that if it were to win in May, we really ain’t seen nothing yet.
It is not an idle threat to say, as the Prime Minister puts it, “to permanently reduce the size of the state”. With the Autumn Statement, we know that this involves a reduction to levels of public expenditure last seen in the 1930s. The economy is, at last, returning slowly to growth. However, on this point Cameron and Osborne are clear – public services will receive no share whatsoever in the growing cake that the public will have created.
This is why I clearly believe that the General Election of May 2015 will be a fork in the road election. Down one track lies the Conservative future in which collective solutions will have been progressively eroded in favour of private and privatised futures. The old JK Galbraith description of corporate America – private affluence and public squalor – is already too true of contemporary Britain.
A Conservative victory in May will institutionalise that process to a point where it will overwhelm the solidarity defences, which, for 70 years, have helped to keep an increasingly complex and disparate society together.
Along the other fork lies a Labour government faced with real economic challenges but with a clear ambition to respond to them fairly; a commitment to provide public services with a proper share of a growing economy and a willingness to borrow to invest where the return on that investment would be clear.
All this matters hugely to securing the future of the UK – indeed to whether there is to be a future for the UK as a truly united nation – and to the future of Wales. That tired substitute for thought – the accusation that there is no difference between the political parties – has never been less true.
A further five years of unrestrained reductions in public expenditure will change the landscape of public services profoundly. The health service in 2020 will not survive a Conservative victory in 2015 in the shape and scope we see it today.
Voters making their way to the polling booths on May 7 will shape the destiny not simply of themselves but of many who will follow them in the future.
Trouble is mr Drakeford,whichever fork you take leads you on a parallel road You map needs re drawing The high way leads to independence
Given the pig’s breakfast Labour left in 2010 – not to mention their poor record on the Assembly and practically every local council they control – the real question is how can anyone in their right mind still vote Labour? This article at least provides an answer to that question: they are living in an alternate reality.
In that reality, ‘collective solutions’ – here a euphemism for the State – ‘produce the most effective response to common problems.’ In this reality, the Cold War was won because Western enterprise and personal responsibility proved far more effective than Socialist ‘collective solutions.’
We are then given the usual Labour line, unchallenged in the media, of Lady Thatcher ‘more or less ending heavy industry, decimating manufacturing industry’ sic. Leaving aside the well-known but generally ignored fact that industries like coal mining had been in a long term decline for decades before 1979, overall national industrial productivity actually increased in the Thatcher Years:
http://www.forbes.com/sites/timworstall/2013/04/08/margaret-thatcher-did-not-devastate-or-destroy-british-industry/
It was under Tony Blair that manufacturing declined most spectacularly as a share of the national economy.
Then there is the other line that is always trotted out, that Margaret Thatcher is somehow responsible for a crash that occurred during a period of prolonged Labour rule, a generation after she left office! Do these people never take responsibility for anything? At the time they never stopped boasting about their three general election victories. They were given every opportunity to prevent or at least mitigate 2008. If Lady Thatcher really had still been in power then, it is difficult to imagine the Iron Lady borrowing in a boom – contrary to Lord Keynes’ strict injunction – as Labour did.
If Professor Drakeford really considers the Coalition a ‘dismal failure… economically,’ perhaps he objects to zero inflation, rising employment, and the most stable economic growth in Europe, all this at a time of great international difficulty. Does he long for the good old days of 2010?
If ‘private affluence and public squalor’ were a fair description of Britain today – and it is not – the only change offered by Labour, based on their record in Wales, is take away the private affluence and leave us with just the public squalor. Labour in Wales still do not grasp that tackling any squalor depends on generating enterprise.
Professor Drakeford feels obliged to make a passing reference to public services, but is wise not to say more. The underfunding and mismanagement of services in Wales has destroyed forever any notion that they are somehow better run by Labour. Even his own masters in London are trying to avoid all mention of Wales in their campaign, like some mad old aunt locked away in the attic.
All reputable economists agree that there will have to be further cuts in public spending irrespective of who wins on Thursday. At least the Conservatives are relatively honest and open about their intentions. Labour are relying on false promises and scaremongering. Professor Drakeford warns the Conservatives will do awful things to the NHS – rather ignoring that the fact that in Wales it is an Assembly responsibility and that he is in fact the man responsible for it! The General Election will not alter that. To imply otherwise in the hope that the old, the sick, and the ignorant will be frightened into voting Labour is dirty politics.
The fact is that Labour drag out similar threats before every election now, but the NHS has not only survived but expanded under all parties. It is only in Wales where, as a result of decisions taken by the Labour Assembly, frontline healthcare has not expanded as it has in the rest of the UK. Anyone can – and should – look up the comparison for themselves.
We’ll get a minority government of one party or another. With luck it will be hamstrung and unable to do significant damage.
I am more worried about 2016 and the prospect of another Labour government here in Wales just drifting along. So my question to Mr Drakeford is: when are you going to lead a palace coup and replace Carwyn Jones as leader? The country needs leadership and it’s not coming from the incumbent..
Er….I am missing something here? “The health service in 2020 will not survive a Conservative victory in 2015 in the shape and scope we see it today. ”
Silly me – there’s me thinking that the Health Service in Wales is a responsibility of the Welsh Government. Are you actually in charge Mr Drake ford?
Mark As ever, the logic of your case is incontestable & I share your pessimism regarding lying cameron who could only get support in the EU from a Hungarian neo Nazi in his assault on Junker’s appointment & failed totally to oust the Speaker for hisown inadequate & incomprehensive (apart from permanent lust for power without accepting resposibility for it) political purposes.He will ever lie through his teeth and I trust that those whose eyes have been opened by recent broadcasts, will realise his inadequacies as Disaster Dai & give us a majority to rival ’45 or Blair’s first or,even Harold’s first!!!!!
Dafydd Meurig Grassroots, Casnewydd, cynt Gorllewin Caerdydd
A valiant attempt to claim a real difference between Tories and Labour. But both of them will carry on with austerity while promising to meet a £100 billion bill for Trident. Labour faces a rout in Scotland – it’s time for Wales to say goodbye to the London parties.
Labour is as much part of the Westminster elite as is the Tory party. Mark Drakeford seems to be inhabiting a parallel universe where he believes that Labour, which marched hand-in-hand with the Tories into the voting lobby of the Commons on January 13 in support of a £30 billion more austerity cuts, is the answer. Like the Tories, Labour hasn’t spelled out where these cuts are going to hit us.
Labour is hell bent on spending £100 billion of our cash on renewing Britain’s stash of weapons of mass destruction. Not surprising really, as it was Attlee’s government, under pressure from Bevin, which got the bomb for Britain in the first place ~ simply “to get a seat at the top table”.
We’ve voted Labour, in Wales for ninety years, spurred on by the tired mantra of “Keep the Tories out” whilst Labour itself gradually morphed into a second neoliberal party hardly distinguishable from it’s partner at Westminster.
The corrupt undemocratic two-party political system remains unreformed despite numerous Labour governments, all of which during my lifetime left the UK in a mess of one kind or another. It’s no wonder a large slice of the electorate is turned off politics. FPTP means that most of our votes go straight into the dustbin.
Remember the euphoria when at last we got rid of Thatcher & Major in 1997? Instead we got Blair & Brown, neither of whom repealed one of the anti-trade union laws passed by the Tories. The consequence has been a compliant workforce on low wages & zero hours contracts. The gap between rich and poor widened significantly between 1997-2010. Labour continued Britain’s century old interference in the Middle East, with two immoral or illegal wars based on lies, causing carnage, huge casualties, and millions of refugees. They spent £40bn of our money on each war.
What is Labour promising us? A minimum wage of £8 by 2020, which probably won’t keep up with inflation. Zero hours contracts, abolished? Not if you read the small print. A freeze on utility bills for 17 months? You can get a fixed price deal for longer. Repeal of Tory anti-union laws? Not a mention.
That brings us to Wales, where poverty, especially child poverty has reached alarming proportions ~ 31% of Wales children, 200,000 in all, under Labour’s administration. Parity of powers and funding for Wales & Scotland? Not a hope in hell ~ Miliband intends to keep the Barnett as Formula as it is.
Has Labour protected the people of Wales from the Tories? Such a claim has no basis. We’ve ended up with Tory government for sixty per cent of the time since 1950.
It’s time for us to ditch the Labour party which takes its orders from Westminster, and instead look to us the people who live here in Wales, to put our country on its feet. The Scots have woken to Labour’s failure. We in Wales should follow their example. We must get the powers denied us by Labour & the Tories to bring prosperity & hope to Wales. Vote for the only party which can achieve it.
Mark, it’s certainly true that the Thatcher government laid the foundation for the crash of 2008, but it’s also true that Labour carried on with Tory economics and built on it. A fact that neither want to admit.
The Tories understand a balance sheet, where it says “Expenditure” only. Labour have difficulty with all the balance sheet. UK investment I think is still one of the worst in Europe. The single most common characteristic of English managed companies I’ve work for is they consider investment to be an unpalatable expense. unless it’s spent on the upper management. All too frequently they want to bleed the company dry rather than turn it round.
Labour and Conservative probably manage the economy the same because the advice they get from the Treasury is the same. Whatever the current economic fad is they’ll advise both to follow it. It makes no discernable difference which is in power, neither understands economics. Don’t feel too bad though, neither do the economists. This is why they study it.
As far as Wales is concerned there is no choice between two One Nation English Colonialists parties. You both consider that our identity and culture are in the way. The unpleasant English Nationalism, that is Unionism, has never been clearer than it is now.
If it’s good enough for your party to say that immigrants must learn English it should be just as right to add Welsh and Gaelic, the native British languages. What’s souce for the goose etc.
As for the NHS neither party has covered itself in glory. Both allow rigid political dogma mixed with inadequate political mico-managent to get in the way. Having said that a private, or partially private, model will not work. In countries that have these models either the state picks up the expensive treatments or you go bust or die. I know families where this has happened. We need a different model of the political element of the management of the NHS
Mark, it’s certainly true that the Thatcher government laid the foundation for the crash of 2008, but it’s also true that Labour carried on with Tory economics and built on it. A fact that neither want to admit.
The Tories understand a balance sheet, where it says “Expenditure” only. Labour have difficulty with all the balance sheet. UK investment I think is still one of the worst in Europe. The single most common characteristic of English managed companies I’ve work for is they consider investment to be an unpalatable expense. unless it’s spent on the upper management. All too frequently they want to bleed the company dry rather than turn it round.
Labour and Conservative probably manage the economy the same because the advice they get from the Treasury is the same. Whatever the current economic fad is they’ll advise both to follow it. It makes no discernable difference which is in power, neither understands economics. Don’t feel too bad though, neither do the economists. This is why they study it.
As far as Wales is concerned there is no choice between two One Nation English Colonialists parties. You both consider that our identity and culture are in the way. The unpleasant English Nationalism, that is Unionism, has never been clearer than it is now.
If it’s good enough for your party to say that immigrants must learn English it should be just as right to add Welsh and Gaelic, the native British languages. What’s souce for the goose etc.
As for the NHS neither party has covered itself in glory. Both allow rigid political dogma mixed with inadequate political mico-managent to get in the way. Having said that a private, or partially private, model will not work. In countries that have these models either the state picks up the expensive treatments or you go bust or die. I know families where this has happened. We need a different model of the political element of the management of the NHS
Mr. Richards ignores the inconvenient fact that Thatcher internationalised UK debt at the same time as Chirac in France. Since then borrowing in both states has followed the same pattern of expedential growth whatever the colour of government. As things stand both government’s debts are held held internationally. In the UK’s case according to the English financial press mostly with China. It is they who have stabilised our economy not the current government.
As a life long socialist, defender of human rights and a Labour Party member for the first time ever I’ll abstain from voting on May 7th rather than support my party.
I’m doing so based on the real and quantifiable damage that Welsh Labour Government has inflicted on Welsh people since the partial devolution. Specific to Welsh NHS Carwyn Jones has a lot to answer for as he is diverting funds away from NHS to fund his other priorities – Welsh language!?
Ed Miliband is on record of promising Wales additional powers with no need to consult Welsh people or to examine WLG’s track record over the last 16 years – To me this is not ‘democracy’.
Some harsh criticism above but certainly not all without foundation. Labour’s position in the WG has been pretty strong throughout considering it is a multi party PR system. They have consistently been in a position that would be the envy of parties in similar administrations across Northern Europe who still govern successfully whilst hanging on a much more slender thread.
The criticisms that are so widely heard – not least on this forum – revolve around poor leadership, wooly ambition, misguided intervention and poor (eventual) policy execution. Inadequate funding in recent years is a lame and over used excuse – why not just do less things better ? Our consistent lack lustre performance has been a gift to Crosby.
Sadly WG seems dogged by a systemic toleration of mediocrity – Ministers intervening too late or not at all in the face of crisis. Oversight of governance of local authorities, a major responsibility, has been dismal – take a look at Pembrokeshire, Carmarthenshire and Anglesey. NHS Wales, though improving, lurches on. Despite a cry for concentrating public procurement in Wales, to meet waiting list targets, patients are sent to private treatment centres in England driving past equivalent facilities in Wales en route. Despite being the dominant customer in the welsh health market, the reliance on using the over priced services of multiple private medical staffing agencies cost millions extra. (State run temp agency please where you can dictate the rates !)
Welsh language issues are allowed to dominate the Agenda – here’s a subtle tip Carwyn – most of us really wish you focussed more on the pressing challenges facing the country.
But the sands are shifting quickly. The youth are dropping out of the electorate disillusioned. The balance of power is shifting towards the elderly and retirees who want it all but don’t expect to pay. The country is rapidly turning blue at the edges particularly as more retirees settle in coastal areas banging Conservative/UKIP drums.
So my message to Welsh Labour is to face the very real possibility that they may be in a last chance scottish style saloon. Time to get a bucket list together and action it fast. Back away from the areas where you are out of your depth such as economic development. Concentrate on Health, Transport, Housing and Education. Use new powers to release land for building and implement aggressive policies that will keep house prices from running away. Set minimum house size rules as they do in the rest of Europe so that families don’t have to exist in dog box accommodation. Push ahead with cancelling Right to Buy.
Creating a land where young families really want to move to (having been squeezed out of the SE of England) because education, health and transport work well, a good home is an achievable goal and the environment is accessible and beautiful should be your primary objective. Market the country to individuals on lifestyle benefits like Australia or New Zealand does to aspiring immigrants – shake off our national image of being self interested moaning old has beens. Their new energy collectively will drive economic resurgence through ambition and initiative in ways that government could never imagine. It will revitalise communities to the benefit of young and old. It will generate more tax revenues.
Change gear and get on with it. Make the legacy of Labour administration in Wales a shining example to the rest of the country. Last chance.
JWR. Do give over. The UK is growing more quickly this year because it had the deepest recession in 2008-9 and then had three unnecessary years of renewed recession and stagnation 2010-13 when this incompetent government slashed spending and precipitated a double dip. Any developed economy starts growing eventually if you stop brutalising it. Never mind one year, cumulative growht in the UK 2008-2015 is among the worst of developed countries. The US assimilated the lessons of Keynes in the 30s; the Conservatives in the UK have forgotten them and are repeating the errors of that time.
Mr Holtham, it is unlike you to make mistake with figures, but you ought to have known that the ‘double dip recession’ never happened:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-23079082
You know also as well as anyone that the first 18-36 months of any administration is determined more by its predecessor’s economic policy than by its own – the same period for which you criticise the Coalition’s record.
If you want an example of a definite ‘double dip recession,’ try America in the 1930s – at the very time Europe was coming out of the Great Depression. That is the real lesson of the 1930s. The American economy was saved – eventually – only by the transfer of British assets under the pressure of forced wartime deals.
Contemporary America is even less of a role model. President Obama’s legacy will be a structural deficit that may well trigger the next big crash, if the euro does not get there first.