Election Special 13: Flat lining to meltdown

Having arrived at Welsh General Election day the time has come to look back at the predictions I made about the about the campaign and its result in early March.

What is striking, and what is also confirmed by all the opinion polls carried out this year culminating in ITV’s Yougov poll yesterday (shown in the tables below) is what little variance there has been. It seems the four-week campaign through April has made no difference at all. Of course, the parties have not been helped by the many distractions, from the good weather and numerous bank holidays to the royal wedding and the discovery of the whereabouts of Osama Bin Laden.

Nor have they been helped by the general absence of eye-catching game-changing policies.  The manifestos were workmanlike. In particular both Labour and the Tories have gone into much greater detail on what they have in mind than ever before, stimulated in part by the successful referendum on more powers. However, my analysis of their contents here amply fulfilled my previous prediction that a good deal of political cross-dressing was about to unfold, see here.

Welsh General Election polls: Constituency vote

Poll/date	Labour	Con	Plaid	Lib Dem	Others
May 2007 Election	32	22	22	15	8
ITV Yougov Jan 2011	45	21	21	7	6
ITV Yougov 4-8 March	48	20	19	7	7
ITV Yougov 28-30 March	47	21	17	8	6
Mmg:Clarity W Mail 4-5 April	50.8	20.3	16.7	7.6	4.6
ITV Yougov 12-14 April	49	20	17	8	6
S4C Yougov 24-26 April	45	21	18	8	8
ITV Yougov 2-4 May	47	20	18	9	6

Welsh General Election polls: Regional List vote

Poll/date	Labour	Con	Plaid	Lib Dem	Others
May 2007 Election	30	22	21	12	8
ITV Yougov Jan 2011	41	20	21	8	4
ITV Yougov 4-8 March	45	20	18	5	2
ITV Yougov 28-30 March	45	20	16	8	2
ITV Yougov 12-14 April	44	20	18	8	4
S4C Yougov 24-26 April	41	20	18	8	16
ITV Yougov 2-4 May	43	19	18	9	13

Undoubtedly Labour has benefited from the presence of a Conservative-led government in London. The party experienced a bounce in the polls of around 10 per cent following last year’s UK general election and this has been sustained pretty much since.  The party judged that all it needed to do was to consolidate that position by adopting the slogan ‘Standing Up for Wales’, which sounds more nationalist than Plaid Cymru’s anaemic ‘For a Better Wales’ – certainly there’s been some cross-dressing going on there.

Contrast the contest here with the more dramatic campaign that is underway in Scotland. There the nationalists have completely out-manoeuvred Labour in ‘Standing Up’ for their country.  In Wales Labour have Carwyn Jones as a credible leader, a reassuring figure who can rock a few boats without making any waves, which kind of suits the Welsh temperament.

Meanwhile, Plaid Cymru has been effectively leaderless. It was noteworthy, for example, that all the party manifestos featured photographs of their leader extensively, all that is except Plaid’s. The Welsh Liberal Democrat leader Kirsty Williams is actually featured seven times in their manifesto, with no other personality getting a look in. For the Tories Nick Bourne shares the limelight with David Cameron and Welsh Secretary Cheryl Gillan. Carwyn Jones appears on Labour’s manifesto cover, then a full-page portrait immediately inside, followed by a half-page given to Peter Hain overleaf.

In Plaid Cymru’s manifesto Ieuan Wyn Jones is nowhere to be seen. It is undoubtedly the best-designed and presented of all the manifestos, but while the rather fetching girl on the cover may well be a budding politician she is too young to be a participant until the election in 2021. The last time Plaid Cymru had a commanding leader was with Dafydd Wigley in the first election of 1999. Then the party won 30 per cent of the vote and were in serious contention.

As Alex Salmond is demonstrating in Scotland, leadership in politics is vital. The latest poll in Scotland is giving the SNP 45 per cent in the constituency vote (Labour 27 per cent – see here). Salmond is worth an extra 20 points for the SNP. For Plaid Cymru a leader of Wigley’s stature would be worth at least another 10 points.

Back on 7 March I predicted the following outcome from today’s vote: Labour 30, Plaid 14, Conservatives 12, and Liberal Democrats 4. This could still be the outcome, but I doubt it. Here’s another stab, a hunch if you like:

Labour: 29

Plaid 13

Conservative 13

Liberal Democrat 4

UKIP 1

If this scenario occurs by late tomorrow afternoon, three potential coalition arrangements will be on offer:

• Labour / Liberal Democrat
• Labour /Plaid
• Rainbow – Plaid / Conservative / Liberal Democrat, with Plaid and the Conservatives alternating in the First Minister post.

Given these choices I think both Labour and Plaid would opt for a One Wales Mark II deal.

Of course the result could easily be the following:

Labour: 29

Conservative 14

Plaid 12

Liberal Democrat 4

UKIP 1

In this case Labour might be inclined to negotiate a deal with the Liberal Democrats, as Plaid would hesitate to go in with Labour from a weaker position than it had in the previous Assembly. I think Plaid would hesitate, swallow hard, and cut a deal nonetheless.

I could go on. All this is pure speculation. Much will depend on the turn-out, the difficulty that Labour in particular has in getting its vote out, and the extent to which there is a melt-down in the Liberal Democrat vote. There are any number of permutations. Which is likely to make the next four days much more interesting politically in Wales than the last four weeks.