As the Welsh Labour leadership campaign commences, Joe Rossiter considers some of the key issues which could shape the debate.
Yesterday First Minister Mark Drakeford stood down as First Minister and Welsh Labour leader, staying true to his promise to serve in the role for five years. It brought to a close a fraught period in Wales’ politics, with navigating both Brexit and the Covid-19 pandemic being key moments that will, for many, define his term.
By resigning, Drakeford shoots the starting gun for the race to succeed him as Welsh Labour leader and First Minister, enabling his successor to be in pole position ahead of the next Senedd election in 2026.
With the leadership race to be concluded by Easter next year, the next few months will see a relatively short campaigning period ahead of a UK General Election at some point before January 2025.
With polls suggesting Keir Starmer’s UK Labour Party stand a good chance of forming the next UK Government, how the next Welsh Labour leader navigates their relationship with the wider UK party will be crucial.
Whilst there are clear frontrunners from the outset in Jeremy Miles and Vaughan Gething (both of whom have been interviewed in recent issues of the welsh agenda) there is certainly space for a broader spectrum of opinion in the race, not just improved (and in our view essential) gender diversity. The threshold to enter the race will be established by the Welsh Labour Executive Committee in the coming days, but will certainly be dependent on gaining support from fellow Senedd Members party colleagues as a first step.
I’m going to take a look at some of the key areas that may form the focus for the campaign ahead of us in the coming months.
The UK-Welsh Labour relationship
With polls suggesting Keir Starmer’s UK Labour Party stand a good chance of forming the next UK Government, how the next Welsh Labour leader navigates their relationship with the wider UK party will be crucial.
The new Welsh Labour leader will have a role to play in supporting the wider party at a general election, most likely to take place in 2024. As such, the new leader may bask in the glow of what polls suggest may be a strong outcome for the party in Wales.
But beyond that, there are questions around how close and what type of a relationship the Welsh party will have with the wider party, and what this would mean for outcomes in Wales.
It is a regular refrain from Welsh Government Ministers that many of the problems in Wales come from being underfunded by a Conservative UK Government, an unsuitable devolution settlement, or poor intergovernmental relations.
With a party of the same colour rosette likely coming into place in Westminster, these arguments will shift to finding areas of consensus. Two governments working collaboratively and productively together should of course be a substantial improvement on the last decade. Yet, there is certainly no indication that a UK Labour Government would transform the sustainability of funding arrangements to Wales nor, indeed, that they would promise broader reform.
So the wider question is, how will the candidates position themselves in relation to the rest of the party? Will candidates take the ‘clear red water’ approach, or will they sound more like ‘UK Labour-lite’?
This distinction in approach is important given who the electorate for this election will be: members of Welsh Labour. Members are most likely to be attuned to the nuance of these issues, and base their votes accordingly.
Taking forward reform agendas
Mark Drakeford has been a reforming First Minister: through the Cooperation Agreement with Plaid Cymru, he has started two widespread democratic reform agendas that the next leader will need to take forward in their own way.
First among these is the widespread Senedd reform agenda, which will see the Senedd expand to have 96 Members, elected via the closed list D’Hondt method (I’ve written previously in more detail about these proposals here).
The case for Senedd reform will need to be clearly made not only to people in Wales, but with Senedd Members, who will need to vote in support of the proposed reforms.
There are also wider discussions around Wales and its constitutional future. Late January will see the launch of the Independent Commission on the Constitutional Future of Wales’ final report, right at the outset of the leadership campaign.
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The Interim report by the Commission makes it clear that the current devolution settlement between Wales and the rest of the UK is not fit for purpose. The final report will set out the future constitutional options for Wales: entrenched devolution, federalism and independence and the complexity of issues that flow from these varying choices. The person seeking to be Welsh Labour leader will need to take a stance on the way forward for Wales, and lay out a vision for the nation’s future.
The optimum moment to establish constitutional reform at a UK level is in the first terms of office of a new government. So the new Welsh Labour leader will need to clearly communicate their vision for the constitutional future of Wales, not only within Wales, but to a UK audience as well.
Finance and economy
Wales faces profound economic challenges within a wider UK economy which is facing its own substantial and longstanding issues.
Welsh Government has a limited ability to kickstart major projects which could transform Wales’ economy.
As recent research by the Resolution Foundation highlights, UK living standards are in freefall in comparison to our European counterparts. GDP is falling, inflation is rising and there is less money for the next UK Government to allocate to improving people’s material conditions.
But Wales faces broader challenges within the UK whole: an older, poorer, less healthy population, living with a higher degree of economic inactivity than its neighbouring nations. Productivity and GDP remain perennially lower than the rest of the UK, stuck around 75%.
As the IWA’s Fiscal Firepower report has noted, despite having relatively strong powers and a budget of over £20 billion, Welsh Government has a limited ability to kickstart major projects which could transform Wales’ economy. So a vision for what Wales can do within its limited powers is key, as well as making the argument for more powers.
These challenges all come at a time where the public sector in Wales is facing a £900 million budgetary shortfall. Budgetary pressures are therefore a medium-term problem that candidates will have to be cognisant of. Budget setting this year won’t be the last time that difficult decisions will be required.
Only radical economic solutions will be able to meet the scale of the change required to drive Wales’ economy towards the successful, fair and green economy we all desire.
As the current Economy Minister, Vaughan Gething has something of a headstart in articulating his vision. He recently announced details of his refreshed economic mission mere weeks ago. But all candidates will need to spell out a strategy for how they will not only guide the economy through a turbulent period, and also how they will aim to use the levers available to Wales to best generate sustained green economic growth across the nation.
Health
Unsurprisingly, the state of the NHS in Wales is a source of continued political pressure for Welsh Labour, regularly appearing on the front pages of newspapers/websites, and top of the order paper at FMQs.
Whilst not directly a climate policy, the 20mph policy has shown how the net zero journey will take substantial political capital.
NHS waiting lists are at record highs and health boards across the nation are being asked to find cuts after more than a decade of austerity. A jewel in Welsh Labour’s historical and philosophical crown as the NHS’ birthplace, the health system in Wales is at breaking point and, despite the attempted shift to prudent healthcare, with Covid backlogs and the ongoing impact of the cost of living on people’s physical and mental health, health inequalities have only worsened across the nation.
Candidates for Welsh Labour leader will need to grasp the nettle on health, and find ways of delivering vital services on a financial shoestring.
Tackling the climate emergency
All of the above takes place against the backdrop of the broader existential challenge of climate change.
The UK Climate Change Committee’s recent Wales reports have made it clear that Wales is not on target to achieve its next set of emissions reduction targets or for adapting communities across the nation for the impacts of climate change.
Candidates will need to set out a vision for how they will look to turbo-charge the delivery of Wales’ net zero journey in a manner that is socially just.
Creating such a vision will take clear, strong and sustained political leadership that can ride out the buffeting headwinds of public opinion. That the roll-out of the 20mph policy has proved so politically divisive may frighten some candidates. Whilst not directly a climate policy, the 20mph policy has shown how the net zero journey will take substantial political capital. Its implementation will need to be the expression of a vision which leaves no one behind, a vision of carrots as well as sticks.
Fundamentally, a just transition to a green economy will require whole-systems change. Transport, food, energy, education, industry, will all need to have a positive vision from government on how they will transition in a manner that has equity at its heart.
It is not evident how this issue will play out during the campaign, but it is clear that net zero should form a vital component of each campaign.
What now?
The next Welsh Labour leader has a job on their hands. Constitutional issues, Senedd reform, budgetary pressure, an increasingly strained NHS, a climate crisis to tackle, the in-tray is bulging.
It is vital that this campaign period is one where policy issues are at the forefront. It is, in our view, a clear opportunity to engage in evidence-informed, thoughtful debate with the people in Wales more widely, not just Welsh Labour members who will vote for their new leader. Welsh Labour’s next leader must be both an empathetic and an outstanding communicator. There are many challenges ahead: Wales needs a clearly articulated vision of what the next decade will look like for the nation. Wales can’t afford to ‘do it all’. It must pick its priorities, stick to them and, above all, deliver.
I’m looking forward to seeing the platforms put forward by the candidates, critiquing them and also advocating for ideas which the IWA believe can have a transformative impact on people’s lives in Wales. Roll on the campaign.
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