In light of the imminent publication of the report of the Wales Net Zero 2035 Challenge Group, Dr Jack Price and Dr Helen Tilley look at the key lessons from WCPP’s recent work on Wales’ journey to a just net zero transition.
Over the last eighteen months, Wales Centre for Public Policy (WCPP) has provided evidence to support the work of the Wales Net Zero 2035 Challenge Group and its five challenge areas, looking at evidence and data from across Wales’ economy and society. We have also produced work on how local authorities can facilitate the net zero transition. This, along with our wider environment and net zero portfolio, highlights the huge scale of the change needed and the opportunities that the transition will bring. Here, we reflect on some of the key takeaways from our recent work.
The scale of the challenge
Reaching net zero by 2050 will involve rapid and far-reaching change as well as adopting extremely ambitious policy objectives and effectively implementing them.
Our report on energy shows that to achieve the target of decarbonising the energy generation system by 2030, the UK will need to more than double its best build rate of energy infrastructure and to achieve it every year until 2035.
Reaching net zero by 2050 will involve rapid and far-reaching change as well as adopting extremely ambitious policy objectives and effectively implementing them.
Likewise, heat pumps are not being adopted at anywhere near the rate required to meet targets for the decarbonisation of housing. Our report on house building and heating argues that cost, performance and lack of confident, trained engineers are all barriers to uptake.
Behavioural changes will also be needed, which will require a careful balance between personal choice, economic sustainability, and net zero. Agriculture will need to change, for instance, through reducing livestock numbers, as red meat is emissions intensive. However, this will need to be managed in a way that sustains and supports the important role of agricultural communities in Wales.
Similarly, connecting people and places through long-term planning across transport sectors, improving the connectivity of local areas, and encouraging a shift away from dependence on cars will be critical in achieving net zero and could also benefit health and well-being.
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In addition to mitigation policies, adaptation to the effects of climate change will form a crucial part of the transition. The slower the mitigation of climate change, the greater and potentially less effective the required adaptation will be, and the more it will cost to put in place. Climate change will lead to more extreme weather, for instance, and adaptation to this will become increasingly more complex.
Accelerating the transition to achieve net zero by 2035, as the Challenge Group will report, would require an unprecedented mobilisation of public and private sector resources as well as wholesale changes to people’s lifestyles. However, even the existing 2050 target will be tough to achieve. It is essential that policy responds to the scale of the challenge, while overcoming barriers to achieving the transition.
Maintaining and promoting agency
The net zero transition requires ambitious policies, but it also needs to be acceptable to the wider public. Some measures may require significant changes to how people live, and if these changes are to be accepted, policymakers and political leaders must show how these changes can be beneficial for individuals and communities.
The net zero transition requires ambitious policies, but it also needs to be acceptable to the wider public.
At the same time, it is important to be clear that not taking action will also affect people’s lives. This is due both to the direct risks associated with climate change, and with the effects of an unmanaged transition on the Welsh economy and society.
This will require a policy approach that preserves and enhances people’s ability to control their destiny. Ensuring that people retain the widest possible choice, while proactively supporting the transition to net zero, will help secure buy-in for action. Involving individuals and communities in the early stages of policy formulation and planning will be important in achieving this.
A just transition
Managing the transition also requires awareness of the distribution of economic opportunity across Wales. A spatial approach to delivering a just transition that looks at where opportunities are concentrated and how they could be affected by the transition, would help to ensure that support can be best directed to where it is needed.
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Governance structures such as the Well-being of Future Generations (Wales) Act 2015 will need to be effectively implemented across Wales in order to achieve a just transition. In areas like Port Talbot, this might mean reskilling, retraining and support for local entrepreneurship; in rural Wales, it might mean targeted and comprehensive support for farmers and rural economies while ensuring communities benefit from new energy infrastructure. In all cases, the transition must be responsive to local needs while delivering new opportunities throughout Wales.
The skills and education system
As our paper on Education, Jobs and Skills shows, Wales has a skills deficit and lower participation rates in post-16 education than other UK nations. Tackling these issues will require a strong, co-ordinated response, including from Medr, the Commission for Tertiary Education and Research. To meet the needs of the net zero transition, barriers need to be reduced to allow adult workers to retrain, and a clear policy steer from government and incentives to train in low-carbon skills and engineering will also be important. Understanding and responding to the needs of each emissions sector is a first step on this journey.
Financing net zero
In a constrained fiscal context, and with cuts to capital expenditure budgets, ensuring that the cost of the transition can be met will mean turning to private sector funding and especially innovative forms of finance. In our report for the Welsh Local Government Association (WLGA), we consider how local climate bonds or pooled investment opportunities could unlock investment in net zero, supporting public sector decarbonisation ambitions and reducing emissions in the wider community.
More broadly, an acceptable balance of financing interventions to reduce emissions between individuals, private actors and the state will need to be achieved. Home retrofit, for example, has been estimated to cost at least £15bn, a sum far in excess of what the Welsh Government can mobilise in the medium-term. But there are significant barriers to asking individuals to pay for these measures themselves; aside from them being expensive, they will exacerbate existing inequalities, and due to the cost and disruption involved many are unwilling to take action. A range of incentives, financing options involving a mixture of state, private and third sector funding will be needed.
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Co-ordinating change
Climate change is a wicked problem affecting many different domains, which requires co-ordinated action across policy areas. To successfully reduce emissions and adapt to a changing climate, Wales will need to put in place strong co-ordinating and cross-government functions to lead change across numerous areas, joining up policy to mitigate negative effects and promoting positive ones. This will involve considering the trade-offs and path dependencies created by policy choices.
While this is often easier said than done, Wales at least has many of the pre-requisites in place to enable this sort of working. The challenge will be to ensure that effective co-ordination achieves multiple policy goals rather than taking a single-minded approach to reducing emissions.
Conclusion
We are currently refining the key lessons from our recent work and looking to uncover challenges where we can support policymakers in Wales to achieve net zero. We would be delighted to hear from other organisations or experts in Wales who are interested in being part of our work in this area. Get in touch at [email protected] or [email protected].
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